Open Source Satellite Intelligence

In the context of OSINT, intelligence refers to the extraction and analysis of public data to gain insights, which are then used to improve decision making and inform activity. Traditionally, OSINT was a technique used by the national security and law enforcement communities. However, in recent years it has also become a foundational capability for asset tracking — ships, planes, cargo, supply chains and space vehicle launches — and for environmental monitoring: deforestation and land use, pollution and emissions, and illegal fishing. Open source work also requires intelligence-stream integration and a flexible platform that enriches threat data and keeps organizations informed of known risks.

Open source asset tracking depends on a multi-INT fusion engine: one that reconciles disparate feeds into a single track, declutters real-time intelligence, prioritizes the categories that matter, and predicts and alerts on targets of interest. That engine has to resolve hidden movement states (“encamped” or “exploratory”) from context rather than position alone: distance to the last cluster, distance to shore, proximity to shipping lanes. Enriching Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracks with S2A analytics from satellite telemetry such as Sentinel-2 closes the remaining gap, detecting and deconflicting target ships in littoral regions where wide sensor swaths and long revisit times would otherwise lose them.

Not knowing the exact location of a spacecraft is a major problem for operators. If satellites cannot be detected — liability and transparency concerns aside — those in pLEO risk a Kessler event. Understanding the what and the where ultimately depends on understanding the who: identifying, in real time, who launched the satellite. By leveraging open source data curated from NOTAMs, public observation sites, launch-tracking technologies and social media, a picture can be assembled in real time in the hours leading up to a launch. Retroactively, launch vehicles and transport can be analyzed to deconstruct the payload and its potential impact on pLEO, ongoing space missions and beyond.